Did Coil Really Win the Haskell Invitational?
Contributed By Post Time PetePosted on 8/2/11 10:47 AM
Anyone who watched the Haskell Invitational and Monmouth Park on Sunday evening was treated to a great race. Bob Baffert and Martin Garcia might just be the best 1-2 punch in horse racing after Coil broke from dead last to win by a neck over Shackelford, the favorite and Preakness winner. Baffert has established himself as one of, if not the, best trainers in the sport today. His choice last year to remove jockey Garret Gomez off Lookin' at Lucky in the Preakness and replace him with Martin Garcia was controversial at the time, but proved to be the right decision as Lookin' at Lucky would go on to win. That move made Garcia an overnight sensation and since that time the two have gone on to win numerous races together.
While I respect the Baffert/Garcia combo and think Coil is a great horse, I can't help but wonder if he really deserved to win. I know I've made this argument before (see The Argument Against a Handicap Stakes Race) but I can't help that it stays relevant. Coil was carrying 4 pounds less (118 total) than Shackleford and Ruler on Ice (122 each). If the generally accepted principle of 3 pounds extra weight equals one length over five furlongs applies, that means Coil not only doesn't win the race, but probably wouldn't have beat Ruler on Ice either.
The Haskell Invitational is a Grade I stakes race. Shouldn't a G1 feature the top horses on an even field? Handicap and Special Weight races certainly have a place in the sport, but not when you're talking about matching up the best of the best. I have no special feelings towards Shackleford and I am by no means a Dale Romans fan, but I can't help but think Shackleford was the deserving winner of that race.
Coil will definitely be a horse I continue to watch in the future. Bob Baffert and Martin Garcia have had my attention for a while now and that won't change. However, on this day they didn't have the best horse in the race, but they did have the winner.
That's what I think, what do you think? Let me know by adding your comments below.
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