Kentucky Derby Probables Based on 2011 Graded Stakes Earnings
Contributed By Stevie StatsPosted on 4/4/11 7:06 PM
The Top 30 as released by Churchill Downs* on the 4th day of April 2011.
| Rank | Horse | Earnings | Trainer | Next Race |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Uncle Mo | $1,260,000 | Todd Pletcher | (April 9 Wood Memorial) |
| 2. | Dialed In | $840,000 | Nick Zito | (May 7 Kentucky Derby) |
| 3. | Pants On Fire | $623,000 | Kelly Breen | (May 7 Kentucky Derby) |
| 4. | J P's Gusto | $541,500 | Joe Petalino | (April 16 Arkansas Derby) |
| 5. | Soldat | $540,000 | Kiaran McLaughlin | TBD |
| 6. | Comma to the Top | $471,000 | Peter Miller | (April 9 Santa Anita Derby; Kentucky Derby doubtful) |
| 7. | Master of Hounds | $441,884 | Aidan O'Brien | (May 7 Kentucky Derby or European classics) |
| 8. | Twice the Appeal | $400,000 | Jeff Bonde | (May 7 Kentucky Derby) |
| 9. | Mucho Macho Man | $370,000 | Kathy Ritvo | (May 7 Kentucky Derby) |
| 10. | To Honor and Serve | $350,000 | Bill Mott | TBD |
| 11. | Decisive Moment | $301,000 | Juan Arias | (May 7 Kentucky Derby) |
| 12. | Animal Kingdom | $285,000 | Graham Motion | (decision on Kentucky Derby after work over dirt) |
| 13. | Astrology | $281,893 | Steve Asmussen | TBD |
| 14. | The Factor | $270,000 | Bob Baffert | April 16 Arkansas Derby) |
| 15. | Stay Thirsty | $260,000 | Todd Pletcher | TBD |
| 16. | Jaycito | $250,000 | Bob Baffert | (April 9 Santa Anita Derby) |
| 17. | Santiva | $240,254 | Eddie Kenneally | (April 16 Toyota Blue Grass) |
| 18. | Watch Me Go | $232,500 | Kathleen O'Connell | (April 9 Illinois Derby or April 16 Arkansas Derby) |
| 19. | Premier Pegasus | $228,000 | Myung Kwon Cho | (April 9 Santa Anita Derby) |
| 20. | Shackleford | $212,000 | Dale Romans | (May 7 Kentucky Derby or May 21 Preakness) |
| 21. | Nehro | $200,000 | Steve Asmussen | (April 16 Arkansas Derby) |
| 22. | Archarcharch | $180,000 | Jinks Fires | (April 16 Arkansas Derby) |
| 23. | Anthony's Cross | $162,000 | Eoin Harty | (April 9 Santa Anita Derby) |
| 24. | Brethren | $155,000 | Todd Pletcher | (April 16 Arkansas Derby) |
| 25. | Flashpoint | $140,000 | Rick Dutrow Jr. | (TBD) |
| 26. | Willcox Inn | $139,000 | Mike Stidham | (April 16 Toyota Blue Grass) |
| 27. | Silver Medallion | $124,334 | Steve Asmussen | (April 9 Santa Anita Derby) |
| 28. | Travelin Man | $120,000 | Todd Pletcher | (April 30 The Cliff's Edge Derby Trial) |
| 29. | Ruler On Ice | $96,000 | Kelly Breen | (April 30 The Cliff's Edge Derby Trial) |
| 30. | Joes Blazing Aaron | $90,000 | Mike Maker | (April 16 Toyota Blue Grass) |
| The next 20 include: | ||||
| 31. | Caleb's Posse | $71,504 | Donnie Von Hemel | |
| 32. | Nacho Saint | $70,500 | Kelly Breen | |
| 33. | Wilkinson | $70,000 | Neil Howard | |
| 34. | Elite Alex | $65,000 | Tim Ritchey | |
| 35. | Sway Away | $61,500 | Jeff Bonde | |
| 36. | Norman Asbjornson | $50,000 | Chris Grove | |
| 37. | Twinspired | $47,500 | Mike Maker | |
| 38. | Surrey Star (IRE) | $44,257 | Jim Cassidy | |
| 39. | Jakesam | $40,000 | Jerry Hollendorfer | |
| 40. | Beer Meister | $32,000 | Manuel Ortiz | |
| 40. | Machen | $32,000 | Neil Howard | |
| 42. | Bench Points | $30,000 | Tim Yakteen | |
| 42. | Queens'splatekitten | $30,000 | Todd Pletcher | |
| 42. | Travelin Man | $30,000 | Todd Pletcher | |
| 45. | Toby's Corner | 25,000 | Graham Motion | |
| 46. | Indian Winter | $22,500 | Jerry Hollendorfer | |
| 47. | Powhatan County | $20,000 | George Weaver | |
| 47. | Bowman's Causeway | $20,000 | Patrick Biancone | |
| 47. | Thirtyfirststreet | $20,000 | Doug O'Neill | |
| 50. | Economic Summit | $15,000 | Rick Violette Jr. | |
| 50. | Saratoga Red | $15,000 | D. Wayne Lukas | |
In 2010, the horse with the lowest amount of graded earnings in the Kentucky Derby field was Make Music for Me, with $218,750. In 2009, Nowhere to Hide had $55,500; in 2008, Denis of Cork had $165,000; and in 2007, Imawildandcrazyguy had $104,000.
Overflow Field Rules
If the number of nominees exceeds the number of available starting positions at the Closing, these conditions shall be applied to determine which nominees will be allowed to start. In the event that more than twenty (20) entries pass through the entry box at the Closing, the starters shall be determined at the Closing from Original Nominees first, then to Supplemental Nominees if starting positions are still available with preference given to those horses that have accumulated the highest earnings in the Graded Stakes races, including all monies actually paid for performance in such Graded Stakes races.
For purposes of this preference the graded status of each race shall be the graded status assigned to the race by the International Cataloguing Standards Committee in Part I of the International Cataloguing Standards as published by The Jockey Club Information Systems, Incorporated each year.
Should additional starters be needed to bring the field to twenty(20) the remaining starters shall be determined at the Closing with preference given to those horses that have accumulated the highest earnings in Non-Restricted Sweepstakes. For purposes of this preference, a "Non-Restricted Sweepstakes" shall mean those Sweepstakes whose conditions contain no restrictions other than that of age or sex.
In the case of ties resulting from preferences or otherwise, the additional starter(s) shall be determined by lot. Any horse excluded from running because of the aforementioned preference(s) shall be refunded the $25,000 entry fee and $200,000 supplemental fee, if applicable. An "also-eligible" list will not be maintained and in no event will starters be added or allowed to run in the Race which are not determined to be starters at the Closing.
Supplemental nominations may be made upon payment of $200,000 and in accordance with the rules set forth. Starters shall be named through the entry box on Wednesday, April 29, 2009, at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time ("the Closing"). The maximum number of starters shall be limited to twenty (20). Supplemental Nominees will be allowed to enter but will not have preference over any Original Nominee and will not be allowed to start in the Race if the maximum number of starters has otherwise been reached by Original Nominees prior to or at the Closing.
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