Post Time Pete's 2012 Kentucky Derby 138 Analysis
Contributed By Post Time PetePosted on 5/4/12 5:30 PM
This year's Kentucky Derby field is a bit disappointing in my estimation. The early favorites have fallen back in their last races and some big wins by underdogs should cause some confusion on the early line. The obvious favorite will likely end up being Bodemeister. He drew post position #6, an ideal spot, especially coming off a dominating win in the Arkansas Derby.
Daddy Long Legs has essentially been given a death sentence with the first post. That combined with his long layoff between races has caused him to fall off my shortlist. The same goes for Liaison in the 20 hole, though he's the lesser of the 2 Baffert horses in this race so he wouldn't have made the list anyway.
So, that's who I don't like, who do I like? Dullahan landed a good spot and could take home the roses. I hate that he's a Dale Romans colt, but there's no denying the horse is talented. I also have to admit I like Take Charge Indy for this race. It's a tougher field, no question, but he's on the inside with jockey Calvin Borel. Even if he doesn't win he could land in the money, so he'll work his way into my exotics. Gemologist is a bit far on the outside, but in such a big field that may work to his advantage. I also have high expectations for Alpha.
I don't know that Hansen will be able to handle the distance despite his considerable earnings this year. If I bet him at all, it won't be to win. I also think Union Rags is a bit overrated. A lot of writers have pointed to the fact that he got boxed in the Florida Derby but still finished 3rd as a sign that he'll come around. I'm not so sure - if he got boxed in Florida, a field of 20 horses won't make it any easier.
I may also throw a few $2 win bets on Sabercat, Done Talking, Prospective, and Trinniberg. I don't necessarily have expectations that they'll win, but if their odds hold, the upset will pay very nicely.
We'll have updated analysis right before the race so check back!
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