Post Time Pete's Kentucky Derby Short List as of 4-30-2010
Contributed By Post Time PetePosted on 4/30/10 8:46 AM
Last week I assumed my field of 5 was set and I wouldn't be making any changes before the Road to the Roses. This week makes last week seem so very far away. Eskendereya dropped out due to injury, turning the field upset down. Endorsement is also out with an injury, eliminating another possible contender. Lookin at Lucky drew post position 1 and while that position has launched twelve Kentucky Derby winners, I have to question whether Garret Gomez on Lookin at (Not So) Lucky will be one of them. Finally, my personal favorite, Sidney's Candy drew pos position 20 which has only launched two winners in the history of the Derby.
Devil May Care will be running in place of Eskendereya and while she's not the horse Eskendereya is, she can still run. She has also had success in the rain and, with weather reports showing an 80% chance of precipitation, that may work to her advantage.
All that said, I'm still pulling for Sidney's Candy and have him at #4. I know it's a ridiculous long shot at this point, but if anyone is ready to make that run it's Joe Talamo. Super Saver drew a good post position and with last year's champ Calvin Borel riding him, he becomes my #1 pick. I know Lookin at Lucky is a great horse, but after watching the recent races he's run on top of his draw of post position 1 and Garret Gomez being his jockey, who in this case I think is a poor fit despite being an excellent jockey, he stays down at #5.
So, here's the list. Regardless of the outcome Big Daddy No Bucks and I will be enjoying mint juleps and rooting for the underdogs. We'll likely both come out looking like handicapping dunces, but that's the beauty of the Derby. Enjoy!
| No. | Horse | Pool 3 Odds | Trainer | Possible Jockey | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
 |
Super Saver | 15-1 | Todd A. Pletcher | Calvin Borel |
| 2 |
 |
Ice Box | 10-1 | Nicholas P. Zito | Jose Lezcano |
| 3 |
 |
Devil May Care | 10-1 | Todd A. Pletcher | John R. Velazquez |
| 4 |
 |
Sidney's Candy | 5-1 | John W. Sadler | Joe Talamo |
| 5 |
 |
Lookin At Lucky | 3-1 | Bob Baffert | Garret Gomez |
Triple Crown Contender
With Eskendereya out of the running, my new pick for the Triple Crown is Ice Box. He has to win the Derby first, but I think if he pulls it off he has a reasonable shot at the crown.
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